MLB Betting Preview: May 8th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: DET vs. COL G1 & G2!
Best parks for home runs: PHI vs. TB, DET vs. COL G2
Early HR targets: Michael Toglia (COL), Spencer Torkelson (DET), Bryce Harper (PHI)
Pitchers I like: Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL), Kris Bubic (CWS)
Pitchers I would fade: Anyone in Coors across both games
A small 9-game slate where Coors stands out for offense, and there are no must-play spots for Ks at a glance…
First look at Hitter Props:
Small slates can be hard to find values, but they also allow the best spots to really come to the surface. If you want runs, bases, home runs, etc. you can’t go wrong with either game in Coors Field. If you want HRs and nothing else, look no further than the short porch in Tampa (Phillies vs. Rays).
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Michael Conforto (LAD) vs. Pfaadt: 7 PAs, .429 Avg & 2 HRs
Yandy Diaz (TB) vs. Luzardo: 12 PAs, .500 Avg & only 1 K
Corey Seager (TEX) vs. Bello: 12 PAs, .364 Avg & zero Ks
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
There are literally zero must-play spots for strikeouts on this slate, but I will say: Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) is due for some positive regression against the Reds. His stuff is legit, his command is elite, and there will be plenty of great K targets in the Cincy lineup. My free play of the day: Schwellenbach o5.5 Ks (-115 on DK, Bovada, etc.)
I like Ryan Pepiot’s (TB) stuff and he’s potentially an ace-in-the-making, but he is a flyball pitcher and the Florida version of the Bronx short porch will be way too inviting for the Phillies lefty power bats. He likely gets chased before he can find 6 Ks.
Outside of that, it will all come down to the lines and lineups we get. No need to force action on a small slate…
Stay green!
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