MLB Betting Preview: May 13th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: CWS vs. CIN, MIL vs. CLE
Best parks for home runs: CWS vs. CIN, STL vs. PHI, MIL vs. CLE
Early HR targets: Austin Hays (CIN), Luis Robert (CWS), Jose Ramirez (CLE)
Pitchers I like: Dylan Cease (SD), Ben Brown (CHC), Kodai Senga (NYM)
Pitchers I would fade: Jonathan Cannon (CWS), Quinn Priester (MIL)
Our first full slate of the week brings a lot of nice offensive park factor setups (four games with a 9.5 total to open), but the elite pitching options are a bit lacking. It’s also a major DFS day with Tacos on PrizePicks, promos on Sleeper, and possibly some on Underdog too!
First look at Hitter Props:
GABP in Cincinnati stands out on this slate for offense in general, while also being the top projected home run spot. Both Jonathan Cannon and the White Sox bullpen are pretty bad, and Andrew Abbott on the other side should pitch well but gives up A LOT of flyballs. I would not be shocked if both teams hit 2+ HRs, so go ahead and fire up a HR Parlay or two.
The other spots that are looking nice for some hitting action include MIL vs. CLE, MIN vs. BAL, and ATH vs. LAD. There’s not a single starter in all 3 matchups that would stop me from betting on some offense against them (with the only pause being how deep and talented the Dodgers pen is, whenever they’re called upon).
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Corey Seager (TEX) vs. Freeland: 24 PAs, .609 Avg & 1 HR
Trea Turner (PHI) vs. Gray: 25 PAs, .391 Avg
Jonathan Aranda (TB) vs. Berrios: 8 PAs, .500Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Ben Brown (CHC) gets the ultimate matchup: a terrible Marlins lineup at home, with Wrigley leaning pitcher-friendly—at least for now when looking at the weather. A minimum line of 5.5 feels inevitable but we very likely see multiple 6.5’s as well, so it will come down to the price at open.
The ultimate Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde looks to have a great matchup on paper, so even if he gets blown up, it’s hard not to like Dylan Cease (SD) to pile up the whiffs vs. the Angels. They’re striking out a ton, Mike Trout is out, and it’s comical what Cease has done against one of their few healthy power bats: Joler Soler is 0-for-20 with 12 Ks against him.
A lot of people are going to back Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs. the White Sox, given the nice run he’s on and the elite matchup, but I am sitting that one out. His flyball rate is not sustainable for home games at GABP, and I would much rather bet on offense in that matchup. If he deals, I will be happy for him, but beyond the flyball problems, he also just does not miss a high number of bats. It’s a playing-with-fire scenario, with his potential outcome ranging from 10 Ks across 7 innings to getting blown up in just 3 with multiple HRs allowed.
Another popular Over pick will be whatever line books give for Jack Leiter (TEX) against the Rockies on the road away from Coors. Until he shows more control and consistency though, I just can’t back him—likely at a 5.5 opening line—for a full unit play. He has massive boom potential in this spot though, so one fun way to bet on him would be 0.1u per on a K ladder as high as the books allow. You’d have less risk and still the potential for a nice payout.
The rest of the slate has plenty of potential K Prop edges to grab, so it will all come down which lines we see and also which lineups as Tuesday rolls along.
Stay green!
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