MLB Betting Preview: May 15th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! You can always access my daily early edges and my very first K Prop grabs of the night in the Discord, but I will also post a free article (like this one!) as my schedule allows.
Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, pitchers getting scratched, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: CWS vs. CIN, MIN vs. BAL
Best parks for home runs: CWS vs. CIN, MIN vs. BAL
Early HR targets: Austin Hays (CIN), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Louis Robert (CWS)
Pitchers I like: Jacob deGrom (TEX), Kevin Gausman (TOR)
Pitchers I would fade: Bryse Wilson (CWS), Trevor Williams (WAS)
A tiny 6-game slate with an obvious offensive spot (GABP) and a few good SPs going…
First look at Hitter Props:
GABP in Cincinnati stands out on this slate for offense in general, while also being the top projected home run spot. We are due for a game in that ballpark with 3+ home runs, and I think it could happen on Thursday. Current park factor numbers give it a nearly 40% boost to HRs vs. league average.
With such a small slate, I don’t think you want to get too crazy with the hitter props.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Adolis Garcia (TEX) vs. Brown: 16 PAs, .333 Avg & 2 HRs
Daulton Varsho (TOR) vs. Littell: 10 PAs, .444 Avg & 1 HR
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Anytime Jacob deGrom (TEX) is on the slate, you have to give him a look. He’s slowly finding his slider—arguably the best in MLB—and he’s also started rearing back for 98+ in certain spots to put guys away. He’s become an auto 6.5 for the most part this season, and I would likely take that depending on the price. I am also interested in Hunter Brown (HOU) on the other side of that game, as he continues to pitch very well despite not having a truly elite put-away pitch, and the matchup is solid without Corey Seager in the mix.
Outside of that, I think we will see a boatload of 3.5 & 4.5 opening K lines, and those are always hard to project and bet on. No need to force too much action on such a small slate.
Stay green!
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