MLB Betting Preview: May 28th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! You can always access my daily early edges and my very first K Prop grabs of the night in the Discord, but I will also post a free article (like this one!) as my schedule allows.
Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, pitchers getting scratched, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: PIT vs. ARI, MIN vs. TB, NYY vs. LAA
Best parks for home runs: MIN vs. TB, NYY vs. LAA, BOS vs. MIL
Early HR targets: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Jonathan Aranda (TB)
Pitchers I like: Clarke Schmidt (NYY), Matthew Boyd (CHC)
Pitchers I would fade: Slade Cecconi (CLE), Tanner Gordon (COL), Trevor Williams (WAS)
Baseball all day long! Love to see it. The ball should continue to fly in Tampa, plus quite a few nice SP matchups to pick from as well…
First look at Hitter Props:
The Yankee Stadium clone in Tampa continues to allow for some cheap HRs out to right field, just like its Bronx counterpart. Both of the pitchers in that game are really solid, but they can still give up hard contact at times making for a great HR spot for both the Twins & the Rays.
The Cubs should hammer Tanner Gordon and a bad Rockies bullpen, despite the weather skewing heavily in favor of pitching (more on that very soon).
I like the Yankees to keep rolling offensively in my 2nd favorite HR spot, but I also love the DBacks as a sneaky value—despite facing Paul Skenes—as they should be patient at the plate and eventually tap into a bad PIT bullpen. You should see a lot of great bats at +Money for Total Bases, H+R+R, etc. against Skenes.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Yainer Diaz (HOU) vs. Severino: 7 PAs, .429 Avg & 2 HRs
Manny Machado (SD) vs. Alcantara: 12 PAs, .667 Avg
Braves Bats vs. Wheeler: 5 of them have 37+ PAs against Wheeler (the top 5 in total PAs on the entire slate); might be some nice values against one of the best aces in the game.
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Matthew Boyd (CHC) gets the ultimate K matchup facing the Rockies on the road, and in a very pitcher-friendly setup at Wrigley as an added bonus. A 6.5 will feel tough to swallow (I can’t see the books giving us anything below that), but I am likely still in depending on the juice.
The Angels continue to strikeout a ton, which sets things up nicely for Clarke Schmidt (NYY) as he continues to get back into form off of injury. We should see a 5.5, which I would be in for, but if they force our hand at 6.5, I am either sitting this one out or waiting for the LAA lineup to drop.
There are quite a few other potential Over spots I love thanks to some great matchups, but most of them are lineup or price dependent. I will be keeping an eye on Griffin Canning (NYM) vs. the White Sox, Landen Roupp (SF) vs. the Tigers, Kyle Hart (SD) vs. the Marlins, Jackson Jobe (DET) vs. the Giants, & the matchup-proof Hunter Greene (CIN) vs. the Royals.
Lastly, this is who I have on fade watch (aka Under spots to potentially grab), either because of matchup or the lack of faith in their stuff: AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL), Brayan Bello (BOS), Miles Mikolas (STL), Sandy Alcantara (MIA), Slade Cecconi (CLE), Tanner Gordon (COL), & Trevor Williams (WAS). It will come down to the opening lines/prices we get.
Stay green!
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
