MLB Betting Preview: July 28th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! You can always access my daily early edges and my very first DFS Slips & K Prop grabs of the night in my DubClub, but I will also post a free article (like this one!) as my schedule allows.
Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, pitchers getting scratched, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: CIN vs. LAD, SEA vs. ATH, ATL vs. KC, BOS vs. MIN
Best parks for home runs: CIN vs. LAD, PHI vs. CHW, SEA vs. ATH, CHC vs. MIL
Early HR targets: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Randy Arozarena (SEA), Bryce Harper (PHI)
Pitchers I like: Cristopher Sanchez (PHI), Framber Valdez (HOU), Jacob deGrom (TEX)
Pitchers I would fade: Bradley Blalock (COL), Davis Martin (CHW), Rich Hill (KC), JP Sears (ATH)
GABP again! And Sacramento is back on the slate too. Bombs away…
First look at Hitter Props:
The hot Cincinnati days are in full effect, making GABP a home run launch pad (it has the smallest overall dimensions in MLB). Sacramento is also back on the slate, and the minor league park lacks a lot of coverage to stop the wind and warm temps from turning a lot of flyballs into home runs. Beyond these 2, Chicago is another elite spot for the Phillies mostly (I would not fire up hitters vs. Sanchez & his elite groundball rate). I would be shocked if we do not see multiple HRs in all of these games: CIN vs. LAD, SEA vs. ATH, & PHI vs. CHW.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Gleyber Torres (DET) vs. Rodriguez: 34 PAs, .333 Avg & 4 HRs
Vlad Guerrero Jr (TOR) vs. Eflin: 22 PAs, .333 Avg & 2 HRs
Ryan O’Hearn (BAL) vs. Bassitt: 15 PAs, .539 Avg & 1 HR
Francisco Lindor (NYM) vs. Cease: 14 PAs, .333 Avg & 3 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) has been lights out lately, and the Ks have been there too. The books likely won’t gift us anything below 6.5 in this spot, and I would give that a look at the right price. He may throw back-to-back complete games if things break right (and especially if the Sox ship out Luis Robert before first pitch).
The Nationals are getting younger by the day it seems, and they always bring a ton of lefties to the plate—often 7 or more—which plays right into Framber Valdez’s (HOU) strengths as a southpaw with a nasty curveball. He’s actually been amazing against both splits though, so I really like him in this spot (almost as much as Sanchez). Guessing this is another 6.5 opening line situation, so it would be fully price dependent.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) looks as healthy as ever, and the Rangers gave him his usual extra day of rest heading into a new week again. He should mow down the Angels who have been striking out at their usual high rate all season. We may see a 7.5 in this spot, and I would likely want to wait for the LAA lineup to drop before buying in.
Outside of those 3 aces, there are plenty of potential Unders on this slate with so many unproven arms going. My initial leans include: Bradley Blalock (COL), Davis Martin (CHW), Rich Hill (KC), Andre Pallante (STL) & Zach Eflin (BAL).
Stay green!
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
