MLB Betting Preview: July 29th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! You can always access my daily early edges and my very first DFS Slips & K Prop grabs of the night in my DubClub, but I will also post a free article (like this one!) as my schedule allows.
Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, pitchers getting scratched, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: CIN vs. LAD, SEA vs. ATH, TB vs. NYY, TOR vs. BAL
Best parks for home runs: CIN vs. LAD, TB vs. NYY, SEA vs. ATH, PHI vs. CHW
Early HR targets: Zach Neto (LAA), Will Smith (LAD), Kyle Schwarber (PHI)
Pitchers I like: Tyler Glasnow (LAD), Michael Soroka (WAS), Joe Boyle (TB)
Pitchers I would fade: Bowden Francis (TOR), Jonathan Cannon (CWS), Tanner Gordon (COL)
Great pitchers in bad pitching spots makes Sacramento THE spot for offense…
First look at Hitter Props:
Both GABP and the Bronx are mega primed for some HRs. The problem is all 4 SPs in those matchups either miss a ton of bats or generate a ton of groundballs, which severely lessens the appeal for all 4 lineups. What this does mean though is that Sacramento should play up in a big way for us as the standout offensive spot. Luis Severino (ATH) has awful numbers at home and has said how much he hates pitching there, and then on the other side Logan Evans (SEA) is an inexperienced rookie who gives up a fair amount of flyballs.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Zach Neto (LAA) vs. Corbin: 6 PAs, .667 Avg & 1 HR
Xander Bogaerts (SD) vs. Manaea: 19 PAs, .467 Avg & 1 HR
Matt Olson (ATL) vs. Lugo: 6 PAs, .600 Avg & 1 HR
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Despite it being a HR launch pad at GABP, Tyler Glasnow (LAD) stands out on this slate in terms of raw K upside (well him and the next guy I want to highlight). He just struck out 12 Twins and the Reds have a ton more +Matchups for him to pile up the whiffs, so it’ll come down to the opening line/price (likely a 6.5 but maybe a 7.5).
The most intriguing arm on this slate is the electric Joe Boyle (TB) against the Judge-less Yankees. We have no idea what kind of length he may get—mostly because of his own command issues—but his stuff is as good as anyone in all of MLB. An opening line of 4.5 is probably too generous, so I may grab a nicely priced 5.5 instead once we get a better idea of the NYY lineup. He’s gone 5 innings just twice this year in traditional starts, and he K’d 7 both times.
I was all aboard the Sean Manaea (NYM) hype train for the second half, as his new arm slot has been absolutely dominant since the start of the second half last season. But then in his last start, his velo was way down and the Ks slowly tailed off after he struckout the side in the first inning. If I could know where he would be sitting with velo heading into this one, I would be in for another Over grab (but I am out for now).
Nobody else really caught my eye for Overs, but there are a few that could be playable depending on the lineups that they get to face: Jesus Luzardo (PHI), Michael Soroka (WAS), Logan Allen (CLE) & Lucas Giolito (BOS).
There are once again plenty of potential Unders on this slate as well with so many unproven arms going. My initial leans include: Jonathan Cannon (CWS), Quinn Priester (MIL), Sandy Alcantara (STL), Bowden Francis (TOR) & Tanner Gordon (COL).
Stay green!
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