MLB Betting Preview: August 1st, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! You can always access my daily early edges and my very first DFS Slips & K Prop grabs of the night in my DubClub, but I will also post a free article (like this one!) as my schedule allows.
Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, pitchers getting scratched, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: COL vs. PIT, ATH vs. ARI
Best parks for home runs: ARI vs. ATH, LAD vs. TB, PIT vs. COL
Early HR targets: Ketel Marte (ARI), Nick Kurtz (ATH), Junior Caminero (TB)
Pitchers I like: Carlos Rodon (NYY), Gavin Williams (CLE), Joe Ryan (MIN), Logan Gilbert (SEA)
Pitchers I would fade: Clayton Kershaw (LAD), Bryce Elder (ATL)
Coors is back! Also, tons of new faces on teams all around the league…
First look at Hitter Props:
We’ve got another Coors Field series kicking off, so you always have to give it a look (it will easily have the highest Total on the slate). It is two pretty underwhelming offenses though, but also bad pitching so who knows how it shakes out!
A better potential spot for offense—including home runs—is the AAA park in Sacramento again, featuring two ball clubs full of free-swinging young sluggers who could put on a show.
Lastly, with Tampa back on the slate again, cheap home runs to right field are very much in play for both the Rays and the Dodgers (I like the Rays slightly more against Kershaw, but he does have a great pen waiting behind him).
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Adam Frazier (KC) vs. Gausman: 45 PAs!, .368 Avg & 4 XBHs
Matt Olson (ATL) vs. Singer: 12 PAs, .333 Avg & 2 HRs
Raleigh/Rodriguez/Naylor (SEA) vs. Leiter: 23 total PAs, .500 Avg & 5 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
The Twins shipped out multiple starters and they still have Buxton on the IL, so Gavin Williams (CLE) gets to face a borderline AAA squad. Wallner & Jeffers have hit him well, but everyone else is a combined 0-for-26 against him. I know this is a K Prop-focused piece, and I would play him at 5.5 (and possibly 6.5 at +Money), but his Outs line feels like a smash spot too.
On the other side of that same game, Joe Ryan (MIN) should have a very long leash with literally their 4 best relievers being traded heading into Thursday’s game. We should see a 5.5 line which looks great on paper—especially knowing Kwan (CLE) could still be moved.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) at home has been an absolute monster with a 1.94 ERA and a 40.5% K-rate, so I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking the Over on literally any line the books give you. This is also a strong ladder spot regardless of who the Rangers decide to throw at him. He has elite numbers vs. the entire roster.
This is a rare occurrence with modern scheduling, but the Marlins roster somehow has zero PAs against Carlos Rodon (NYY). That is a pretty big point in his favor, especially for a guy with a 28% K-rate on the season. The fish have been feisty, but this is still a very young team that has never faced Rodon’s wipeout slider.
Now the not-as-fun-but-still-very-profitable part: My initial Under leans include Bryce Elder (ATL), Clayton Kershaw (LAD), Cooper Criswell (BOS), Jack Leiter (TEX), & Matthew Liberatore (STL).
Stay green!
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
