MLB Betting Preview: August 2nd, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! You can always access my daily early edges and my very first DFS Slips & K Prop grabs of the night in my DubClub, but I will also post a free article (like this one!) as my schedule allows.
Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, pitchers getting scratched, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: COL vs. PIT, ATH vs. ARI, BOS vs. HOU
Best parks for home runs: ARI vs. ATH, PIT vs. COL, LAD vs. TB
Early HR targets: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Christian Yelich (MIL), Corbin Carroll (ARI)
Pitchers I like: Chase Burns (CIN), Matthew Boyd (CHC)
Pitchers I would fade: Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL), Noah Cameron (KC)
Warm weather all over the place, quite a few aces too!…
First look at Hitter Props:
Hot weather mixed with Coors Field is tough to beat. The park projects the best for total runs by a lot on the slate (even though the 2 offenses can be lackluster and Paul Skenes is in the mix), and it is also in a tight top 3 for home runs. The other 2 for some bombs is the same as last night: ATH vs. ARI & TB vs. LAD.
One fun unique spot for Saturday is the Speedway Classic in Bristol (CIN vs. ATL). The weather isn’t amazing hitting weather, but it is solid enough to take a look at HRs given the hard contact issues of both SPs (despite both missing a lot of bats).
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Luis Robert (CHW) vs. Hendricks: 14 PAs, .417 Avg & 2 HRs
William Contreras (MIL) vs. Irvin: 15 PAs, .333 Avg & 2 HRs
Josh Smith (TEX) vs. Castillo: 10 PAs, .556 Avg & 1 HR
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
We have to start by mentioning the trio of top tier aces on the bump, though none of them have a smash spot to pile up the Ks (though they still obviously could). Paul Skenes (PIT) gets an elite matchup on paper, but it is in Coors Field and the Pirates will continue to limit him (he isn’t likely to go past 5 IP regardless of pitch count). Tarik Skubal (DET) is a candidate to toss double-digit Ks any night of the week, but the Phillies lineup is full of great hitters. Lastly, Zack Wheeler (PHI) gets the scrappy AL leading Tigers who are one of the highest variance lineups in MLB. Any of these 3 aces could absolutely dominate and put up a gem, but there is not likely to be much value in backing that.
Another group of aces—just a tier below the first 3—have their own concerns that will keep me off of them as well. Blake Snell (LAD) will have obvious workload limitations in his first start since April 2nd, Spencer Strider (ATL) is still getting Ks but has some major red flags in his profile (lack of four-seamer whiffs and major drop in his ideal fastball shape), and Jacob deGrom (TEX) has strangely been giving up a lot of hard contact and/or runs each time out lately (but I mostly expect him to be elite in T-Mobile).
My favorite guys to potentially pile up Ks start with Chase Burns (CIN) against a team that has never seen his stuff and should be susceptible to his wipeout slider. I would love to get a 5.5 line and consider a ladder. I also really like Matthew Boyd (CHC) against a depleted O’s lineup who had already been struggling vs. LHP before they lost Mullins/O’Hearn/Laureano/Urias (4 of their better bats in terms of contact against lefties).
Other Overs I am keeping a close eye on, which will likely come down to the opening lines we get: J.T. Ginn (ATH), Eury Perez (MIA), & Max Scherzer (TOR).
Lastly, the not-as-fun-but-still-very-profitable part: My initial Under leans include Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL), Randy Vasquez (SD), Noah Cameron (TOR), & Jake Irvin (WAS).
Stay green!
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
