MLB Betting Preview: August 4th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! You can always access my Home Run Report and my very first DFS Slips & K Prop grabs of the night in my DubClub, but I will also post a free article (like this one!) as my schedule allows.
Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, pitchers getting scratched, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: COL vs. TOR, BOS vs. KC
Best parks for home runs: COL vs. TOR, PHI vs. BAL
Early HR targets: Addison Barger (TOR), Bobby Witt (KC), Tre Turner (PHI)
Pitchers I like: Tyler Glasnow (LAD), Casey Mize (DET), Jesus Luzardo (PHI)
Pitchers I would fade: Bailey Falter (BOS), Cade Povich (BAL), Erick Fedde (ATL)
Another Coors series gets underway! Philly looking primed again too…
First look at Hitter Props:
Hot weather mixed with Coors Field is tough to beat. The park projects the best for total runs by a lot on the slate, and it is also in an obvious top 2 for home runs along with Philadelphia. Keep in mind teams sometimes struggle in G1 of a series at high elevation (the Jays in Coors), but the Rockies are so depleted and playing so poorly on defense that they could still really pop off.
Other above average spots for home runs includes LAA vs. TB & LAD vs. STL. There are no other standout environments for runs in general (at least not from a raw park factor standpoint).
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) vs. Corbin: 29 PAs, .333 Avg & 2 HRs
William Contreras (MIL) vs. Fedde: 19 PAs, .563 Avg & 2 HRs
Ian Happ (CHC) vs. Lodolo: 22 PAs, .350 Avg & 1 HR
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
This slate only has a couple of true aces, so we have to talk about Tyler Glasnow (LAD) and the elite ceiling he brings to any start. The Cardinals have been striking out more lately, and 3 of their young bats have never seen his stuff. Guessing we see a typical 6.5 line in this matchup for him, and I would need to see the price first. The only other SP I consider a full-on ace is Max Fried (NYY) and much like Glasnow: at least 5 of their starters will have never faced that Fried curveball. I like him o5.5 at first glance.
Zebby Matthews (MIN) had a rough start last time out, but it was a perfect storm of a ton of contact bats and hitter-friendly weather. I could see his slider doing major work if he can hit his spots, and I would be way in if they somehow give us a 4.5 (but we likely see 5.5+). This kid has elite command and is already striking out 29% of all hitters despite plenty of struggles.
Some other spots where there could be value for Overs (& possibly even small ladders) includes Justin Verlander (SF), Jesus Luzardo (PHI) & Michael Soroka (CHC).
Lastly, the not-as-fun-but-still-very-profitable part: My initial Under leans include Brandon Pfaadt (ARI), Erick Fedde (ATL), Sandy Alcantara (MIA) & Tanner Gordon (COL). All are line and/or lineup dependent though.
Stay green!
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
